The banality of decontextualised CCP influence operations — bestowing titles on individuals, establishing organisations, maintaining personal contact, and organising events — often invites underestimation of their effectiveness. Compared to alternative methods of power projection, such as formal diplomacy, state-linked investment, propaganda and military ties, influence operations are cheap, low-risk and effective.
This paper builds on a growing body of work analysing CCP influence operations conducted overseas at subnational levels. It examines how the CCP conducts influence operations in the Malaysian state of Sabah through cultivating and co-opting local ethnic Chinese elites.
Sabah’s strategic importance to the CCP accrues from its rich natural resources such as palm oil and timbre and its proximity to the South China Sea. Further, Sabah’s role as a “kingmaker” in national elections gives its politicians and elites considerable sway in shaping national political outcomes.
These Sabah Chinese elite — ranging from business leaders with ties to China, political advisors and former politicians to think-tank analysts and academics — are influential figures with access to politicians, state institutions and media platforms. Their respectability and credibility grant the CCP a systematic hold over key policy debates and media narratives in both Sabah and Malaysia.
By targeting ethnic Chinese elite in Sabah, the CCP aims to shape the distribution of natural resources and shift the needle of discourse on strategic and sensitive issues such as port development, the Belt and Road Initiative, the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang and China’s presence in the South China Sea.
Overall, CCP influence operations in Sabah appear to be largely successful. The CCP has successfully exerted its influence on politicians even during seismic political shifts in Sabah and Malaysia. Furthermore, through partnerships with key Sabah figures, the CCP has ensured that pro-CCP narratives are kept in circulation in local political and media discourse. This includes promoting narratives that portray China as economically beneficial and its military presence as benign while masking the potential risks of PRC dominance in the region. Left unchecked, the influence of the CCP over Sabah’s strategic port development and technology decisions may create ripple effects in the wider Bornean and Southeast Asian region.
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